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	<title>Comments on: The escalation of commitment, or, rational thought meets&#8230;people</title>
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	<description>Dave Ferguson&#039;s interests, ideas, notions, tangents</description>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/archives/2953/comment-page-1#comment-17787</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 13:36:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/?p=2953#comment-17787</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s an interesting angle, Simon.  I recall clearly the George W Bush administration, after a very narrow win, claiming a mandate and pulling more levers than Lyndon Johnson did after his landslide: a win is a win.

The link that Julie provided was fascinating to me: near-wins far more painful than obvious losses.  

Without getting too heavy, I think this is reflected by an industry that calls itself gaming rather than gambling.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s an interesting angle, Simon.  I recall clearly the George W Bush administration, after a very narrow win, claiming a mandate and pulling more levers than Lyndon Johnson did after his landslide: a win is a win.</p>
<p>The link that Julie provided was fascinating to me: near-wins far more painful than obvious losses.  </p>
<p>Without getting too heavy, I think this is reflected by an industry that calls itself gaming rather than gambling.</p>
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		<title>By: Simon Bostock</title>
		<link>http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/archives/2953/comment-page-1#comment-17775</link>
		<dc:creator>Simon Bostock</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Dec 2009 08:06:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/?p=2953#comment-17775</guid>
		<description>Hi Dave

Great post. I don&#039;t think we have Swoop but I do get loads of emails telling me they&#039;ve &#039;just sold a PlayStation for £11.62&#039; and even a hard-bitten rationalist (cough) like me wondered how this was possible and was tempted to have a look.

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/.m/marginalrevolution/2009/11/how-to-sell-a-dollar-for-more-than-a-dollar.html

As David Zetland points out in the short video above, though, it&#039;s way bigger than a smart retailer price-gouging. The Dollar Auction is essentially how politics works.

I think David Zetland shows a pretty good demonstration for good in the video above, Julie. Drawing attention to cognitive bias is important for learners. And this one&#039;s a doozy demonstration-wise.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Dave</p>
<p>Great post. I don&#8217;t think we have Swoop but I do get loads of emails telling me they&#8217;ve &#8216;just sold a PlayStation for £11.62&#8242; and even a hard-bitten rationalist (cough) like me wondered how this was possible and was tempted to have a look.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.marginalrevolution.com/.m/marginalrevolution/2009/11/how-to-sell-a-dollar-for-more-than-a-dollar.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.marginalrevolution.com/.m/marginalrevolution/2009/11/how-to-sell-a-dollar-for-more-than-a-dollar.html</a></p>
<p>As David Zetland points out in the short video above, though, it&#8217;s way bigger than a smart retailer price-gouging. The Dollar Auction is essentially how politics works.</p>
<p>I think David Zetland shows a pretty good demonstration for good in the video above, Julie. Drawing attention to cognitive bias is important for learners. And this one&#8217;s a doozy demonstration-wise.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave</title>
		<link>http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/archives/2953/comment-page-1#comment-17705</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:55:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/?p=2953#comment-17705</guid>
		<description>Julie, it&#039;s a perplexing phenomenon.  I can imagine those running these auctions (and it&#039;s not just Swoopo) spreading their hands, palms up, a practiced look of innocence:  Hey, we&#039;re selling these Duplos (or this TV, or this ocean liner) at a real bargain.  And nobody &lt;em&gt;has &lt;/em&gt;to bid.  At the same time, they&#039;re counting on, possibly depending on, the addictive and irrational behavior that brings them $120 in revenue above a list price of $110.

Thanks so much for the link to The Frontal Cortex.  I hope others read it.  I think one piece that Lehrer quotes is worth repeating:

&lt;em&gt;It turns out that &lt;/em&gt;[in an experiment]&lt;em&gt; near-misses activate almost exactly the same dopamine circuits as actual wins - but here&#039;s the punchline - they were subjectively experienced as the most unpleasant outcome, even worse than total misses.

In other words, the dopamine system was firing like a rocket display but the experience was awful.

Interestingly, although near-misses were experienced as aversive they increased the desire to play the game but only when the person had some perception of control, by choosing what the &#039;lucky&#039; picture would be. Of course, like choosing &#039;heads or tails&#039;, it&#039;s only an illusion of control because the outcome is random anyway. 
&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Julie, it&#8217;s a perplexing phenomenon.  I can imagine those running these auctions (and it&#8217;s not just Swoopo) spreading their hands, palms up, a practiced look of innocence:  Hey, we&#8217;re selling these Duplos (or this TV, or this ocean liner) at a real bargain.  And nobody <em>has </em>to bid.  At the same time, they&#8217;re counting on, possibly depending on, the addictive and irrational behavior that brings them $120 in revenue above a list price of $110.</p>
<p>Thanks so much for the link to The Frontal Cortex.  I hope others read it.  I think one piece that Lehrer quotes is worth repeating:</p>
<p><em>It turns out that </em>[in an experiment]<em> near-misses activate almost exactly the same dopamine circuits as actual wins &#8211; but here&#8217;s the punchline &#8211; they were subjectively experienced as the most unpleasant outcome, even worse than total misses.</p>
<p>In other words, the dopamine system was firing like a rocket display but the experience was awful.</p>
<p>Interestingly, although near-misses were experienced as aversive they increased the desire to play the game but only when the person had some perception of control, by choosing what the &#8216;lucky&#8217; picture would be. Of course, like choosing &#8216;heads or tails&#8217;, it&#8217;s only an illusion of control because the outcome is random anyway.<br />
</em></p>
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		<title>By: Julie Dirksen</title>
		<link>http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/archives/2953/comment-page-1#comment-17703</link>
		<dc:creator>Julie Dirksen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 23:38:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.daveswhiteboard.com/?p=2953#comment-17703</guid>
		<description>Yes -- Swoopo smacks of Evil Genius doesn&#039;t it?  Pings some of those particularly vulnerable cognitive biases (e.g. sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion, etc.).

Jonah Lehrer wrote an interesting piece about Swoopo you might like: 

http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2009/07/swoopo.php

I keep trying to figure out how to use these things for Good (learning), rather than Evil :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes &#8212; Swoopo smacks of Evil Genius doesn&#8217;t it?  Pings some of those particularly vulnerable cognitive biases (e.g. sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion, etc.).</p>
<p>Jonah Lehrer wrote an interesting piece about Swoopo you might like: </p>
<p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2009/07/swoopo.php" rel="nofollow">http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2009/07/swoopo.php</a></p>
<p>I keep trying to figure out how to use these things for Good (learning), rather than Evil :)</p>
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